On December 10, 2009, the Federal Reserve Board put up an updated Open Market Committee (FMC) Minutes. In particular, the Minutes talked about market participants' views of the prospects for continued improvement in the housing market. It also mentions interest rates on mortgages, and the open market repo, among other topics. As can be seen below, the FMC did not change any of their earlier open market repo policy stance with regard to interest rates/inflation. The FMC actually raised rates and kept interest rates lower for a longer time period than many others. They indicated that, with inflation falling to below 2%, there was a chance they might be willing to take a more aggressive approach with rate hikes and the FMC decided to take a step back. In this context, the fact that the FMC decided to leave interest rates where they were in order to keep the monetary policy stance supportive was very prudent. It does appear that many mortgage bond investors saw a lower yield and took advantage to borrow money at a very low cost which ultimately led to the loss of investor funds. The FMC did take steps to further lower rates. There were no rate hikes after the FMC decided not to hike rates on November 30th. However, FMC members were willing to go above the Fed's official policy rate target of the Federal Funds rate and as a result, reduced the Federal Funds rate by 0.25%. This change in the fed funds rate resulted in a smaller supply of available credit and higher mortgage rates. The change in the fed funds rate could not, however, prevent the increase in short-term interest rates or the drop in house prices and the continued downturn in the housing market. By allowing for a little better liquidity during the housing boom and bust in order to make it easier for banks to borrow in order to invest in mortgages, rates were increased on all lending contracts which would make it very difficult for lenders and mortgage bond investors to borrow in the next housing bust to help finance a housing revival. The FMC did raise the fed funds rate by 0.25%. While a step in the right direction, the FMC failed to take any action during this period in order to stimulate the housing market. There is no way of knowing if higher rates had been helpful for housing or if the housing market had been affected if they had been increased, since all the data points are inconclusive.
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From: Robert Furman ski Subject: Reg Z Truth in Lending Comments: Date: Dec 15, 2009 Proposal: Regulation Z Truth in Lending — Closed-end Mortgages Document ID: R-1366 Document Version: 1 Release
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