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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 130 (2005) 27?37 www.elsevier.com/locate/agrformet Summer climate mediates UK wheat quality response to winter North Atlantic Oscillation M.D. Atkinson a, P.S.
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The UK spring wheat yield response was enhanced by a very slight southward shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This northward shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation was associated with a decrease in the mean temperature and associated increase in precipitation in the UK. This increase in moisture, rather than increase in temperature was the primary mechanism that led to the increase in yield. Keywords: UK, wheat, climate, rainfall, ooze 1. Introduction The UK wheat population has grown from around 13 million tons in the 1960s to the present around 26-28 [J.R. Withers and C.K. Lacey, 1993]. It is estimated that in 1990 the UK would need about 80 more a million acres of wheat to feed the population [J.R. Withers and C.K. Lacey, 1993; R. P. Pigeon, 2003]. UK wheat production was projected to increase between 1990 and 2030 [P.A. Rowntree and M.P. Denton, 2002]. In 2000, the UK consumed about 19 million tonnes of wheat which equated to 18.2% of its own harvest, a record high [J.R. Withers and C.K. Lacey, 1993]. Since World War II the UK has produced wheat at an average rate of 40 million tonnes per year [J.R. Withers and C.K. Lacey, 1993]. Of this, 19 million tonnes went into cereal production (40% of total wheat production) and 18.5 million tonnes were used for animal feed. The UK wheat industry contributes significant tax revenues to the public purse (over £700 million in 2004/05, almost 3% of GDP [J.R. Withers, 2004]]). In 2002, the UK exported wheat to 28 countries worldwide with Germany accounting for the vast majority of the UK's exports [J.R. Withers, 2004]. In the 1970s, wheat was a staple in Europe, with around 50% of the European Union's grain production used domestically for food.

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