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CSL Technical Note October 10, 2007, A Multi-perspective Analysis of the Storm (Pea comm) Worm Phillip Ports and Hansen SA DI and Vinod Yegneswaran i Computer Science Laboratory http://www.cyber-ta.og/pubs/StormWorm/

These systems, particularly those based or influenced by human forcing, have been particularly successful in simulating and predicting recent events. Several modeling studies in recent years have used computer models to determine the probabilities of the occurrence of climate perturbations in the near future to estimate the influence of human activity on the climate system. This paper presents the results of a multi-perspective analysis of the recent storm (Pea comm) as modeled by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NEAR) at Boulder CO. The simulation runs over three different continents, with different climates, and simulated temperatures for 5–10 years into the future (see Figure S1). The simulation is based on data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/CEP reanalyses. The precipitation anomalies are determined by a model-based hydrologic model. The modeled rainfall and wind speeds are the fastest of three periods of simulated years. The resulting climatic results are compared with a historical reference period. Caption A Multi-perspectivist Analysis of the Storm (Pea comm) Worm Philip Ports and Hansen SA DI and Vinod Yegneswaran i Computer Science Laboratory 2 Results This paper examines the simulations results in three distinct time frames. The first is a five-year running period over the period 2005–2035 (see Figure S1 at right), which is considered a representative global climate model simulation. The second time frame is a 12-year running period, from 2005 to 2035, that combines the five-year running period (2005–2022) with an 11-year run period from 1940 to 1970 for the five-year running period. This frame is considered to be a more realistic run, because of the more realistic approach to model simulation, and the inclusion of a larger ensemble of climate models with larger numerical runs. Both times are considered as globally representative of a real climate. The third run is from 1980 to 2099, a representative period of the recent storm in question. These results are compared with historical observations taken from NOAA/CDC reanalysis data. 3 Results To evaluate the results of the simulations, we evaluate the likelihood that the simulated extreme event would occur in the real world. The probability of such a rare, extreme event is defined to be the probability of the extreme event occurring in the real world.

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