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BER WORKING PAPER SERIES THEORETICAL ISSUES PERTAINING TO MONETARY UNIONS Bennett T. McCallum Working Paper 7393 http://www.nber.org/papers/w7393 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts

I am also indebted to Edward Frankel and Anne-Marie Gubler-Haupt, in particular, for excellent research assistance. Copyright 1999 by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Introduction The recent economic history of the United States has not, as most people expected it would, brought a dramatic economic expansion. Rather, during most parts of the period covered by this paper the economy has continued to grow at a moderate pace and there have been only modest changes in its pace. The current economic expansion began in June 1992 and ended in June 1998. It began and continued in large part because of a sharp reduction in inflation that ended on December 31, 1995, and continued through the December 1997, holiday season. This is not to say that there were no interruptions, but it is hard to see how the recession of the 1990s could have continued without the sharp decline in price inflation. The current expansion has lasted, on average, five and a half years. It was clearly a strong one and the largest in at least 70 years. But despite the large size of the increase in output, the increase in real (inflation-adjusted) income, and more importantly in the real consumption of personal consumption expenditures, there has been no increase in total personal income. The increase in real consumption spending has not occurred at the same time as the increase in output and income. The increase in real consumption spending during the current expansion has been the smallest since the beginning of the expansion in 1933 when the economy was far stronger than it became during the current period, and it has been the slowest growth in real consumption spending since 1938. This paper begins with a broad overview of the history of the U.S. inflation process and how it has been influenced by monetary policy. If inflation is to be a source of economic growth, there should be some measure of price stability in the economy and thus some price level to which a broad class of economic actors may adjust (or to which they would adjust where price levels to be stable). Such a level of price stability is best understood from an economic perspective. The concept of price level, in turn, depends on the level of real output and personal consumption. A broad set of inflation measurement techniques will enable the average worker to measure the trend in the real output level, to measure the trend in real consumption expenditure levels, and to determine the difference between these two trends. Price levels as measured by monetary authorities have tended to be high when real output is low and relatively low when real output is high.

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