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The goodness of fit of a statistical model describes how well it fits a set of observations. Measures of goodness of fit typically summarize the discrepancy between observed values and the values expected under the model in question.
In general, a model fits the data well if the differences between the observed values and the model's predicted values are small and unbiased. Before you look at the statistical measures for goodness-of-fit, you should check the residual plots.
In general, a model fits the data well if the differences between the observed values and the model's predicted values are small and unbiased. Before you look at the statistical measures for goodness-of-fit, you should check the residual plots.
Fitting a model means that you're making your algorithm learn the relationship between predictors and outcome so that you can predict the future values of the outcome. So the best fitted model has a specific set of parameters which best defines the problem at hand.
Model fitting is a procedure that takes three steps: First you need a function that takes in a set of parameters and returns a predicted data set. Second you need an 'error function' that provides a number representing the difference between your data and the model's prediction for any given set of model parameters.
It indicates the absolute fit of the model to the data how close the observed data points are to the model's predicted values. RMSE is a good measure of how accurately the model predicts the response, and it is the most important criterion for fit if the main purpose of the model is prediction.
Mentor: Well, if the line is a good fit for the data then the residual plot will be random. However, if the line is a bad fit for the data then the plot of the residuals will have a pattern.
A good way to test the quality of the fit of the model is to look at the residuals or the differences between the real values and the predicted values. The straight line in the image above represents the predicted values. The red vertical line from the straight line to the observed data value is the residual.
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