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Jim Cobb: One of the jobs of the U.S. Geological Survey is to assess the geology resources of America, and they have a program in earthquakes where they construct a national seismic hazard map, it shows the central U.S. where we are to be quite high. They have estimated the hazard to be, what we consider to be, much higher than it should be. VO: Ten years ago the Kentucky Geologic Survey set out to challenge the high hazard risk for Western Kentucky, because it impacts the state's economic future. Jim Cobb: the federal government by law cannot build certain federal facilities within an active earthquake zone of a certain magnitude. So between what is allowable under federal law, and the competition between locating industry, these things have a big impact on your state's economy. VO: The region with the highest risk potential was the New Madrid zone, which experienced devastating earthquakes in the 1800s. Jim Cobb: in 1811, 1812 December, January and February there were three very large earthquakes. Once those earthquakes went off, pressure was released. And the amount of time it takes to build up pressure again to have a failure like that is in the order of hundreds of years. To, perhaps on the northern end of New Madrid, as much as a thousand years. VO: KG constructed the Kentucky Seismic and Strong Motion Network, made up of 24 stations across state, to monitor earthquake activity. Seismic hazard analysis has a number of components, the location of active zones. The maximum likely earthquake that can likely occur there. The frequency, how often those earthquakes occur on that zone, and then the way the rocks transmit the energy. All go into mathematical equations. VO: Doctors Cobb and Wang published their math, based on the data from the network, in 2012. What they found is the type of probabilistic modeling the U.S.G.S. used to create the hazard map was incorrect. Hemming Wang: What we find out is this method, mathematically, is not correct. What we find is this national hazard map is not scientifically sound, that's why there is a problem. Jim Cobb: So we do a deterministic modeling for say Caducei and our results show a much more moderated seismic hazard. It's just not, say, as significant as California and other places like Japan, China. Hemming Wang: we've shown now scientifically such high assessment for that area is not appropriate.
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