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One other thing you can do with pert because we have three estimates of time for each one of the activities and recalculate the expected time and the variance we then can calculate what the probability is finishing the project now based on what we×39’ve done so far because we did do the expected time we can assure you that think about this way if you have a normal distribution, and we are saying we believe that we can get the project done in 15 weeks that×39;basically the halfway mark we have a50/50 probability of finishing it and sowed×39’ve hit that that majority mark and so but there is still a probability that twill take longer all we can say is 50/50but we can calculate then if somebody say well what would be the probability that you have it done in 16 weeks if we had an additional week or 17 weeks if we had two additional weeks, or we could even calculate the probability of getting it's done early let's say they wanted to know the probability of having it done in 14 weeks instead of 15 weeks you know that×39’s going to be less than50% because of your normal distributions given that we calculated expected time and use that for a forward and backwards pass we determine the length this project is 15 we can say that therein a 50/50 or that we are only confident to that degree so if we wanted to before confident we would want to add Timon now how do we figure that out in regard to other facts and figuresthere'’s a couple different ways took stat this one is you want to look at the variance for those activities on the critical path it doesn't×39’t matter if the activity isn't on the critical path it can vary, and we don't care about that because it already has Slack whereas we're very concerned with those activities on the critical path that have a lot of variance and so IN×39’m going to add up the variance for those activities on the critical path, so we said it is a + C + e + G + Yes we have calculated variances for other activities, but they weren't on the critical path, and so they don't affect the overall length of the project, but these activities on the critical path do affect length of projects, so we want to know what the sum total now remember this variance is a squared figure so to make sense of it we actually want to convert it back into the units we're arising which is weeks, so we can take out the square by using the square rootExcel we use a function called sq RT which is for square root, and then we plug in the number that we want to have the square root of and that would give then we can say that our project standard deviation is one point seven six weeks is one standard deviation that we can if we're looking at that now if you wanted to be more assured thinking back to what you know about normal distributions in regard to one standard deviation plus or minus or two standard deviations or three standard deviations if we wanted to make sure that we were99% sure that we would get it done remember that three standard deviations...
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