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“Emerging Threats in the 21st Century Strategic Foresight and Warning Seminar Series Final Report Zurich, December 2007 2007 Center for Security Studies Contact: Center for Security Studies Seilergraben

How to fill out strategic foresight and warning

How to fill out strategic foresight and warning:

1. Start by identifying the objective: Clearly define the purpose and scope of your strategic foresight and warning exercise. Determine what specific areas or issues you want to address and what goals you want to achieve.
2. Gather relevant information: Conduct thorough research and gather data from a variety of sources. This may include analyzing historical trends, studying industry reports, monitoring global events, and engaging with subject matter experts. The more comprehensive your information, the better your foresight and warning capabilities will be.
3. Analyze the data: Carefully analyze the information collected and identify trends, patterns, and potential future scenarios. Consider both quantitative and qualitative data to obtain a holistic view of the situation. Look for emerging risks, opportunities, and potential disruptions that may impact your organization or the wider context.
4. Build scenarios: Develop alternative scenarios based on the analysis to explore different plausible futures. These scenarios should be diverse and encompass a range of potential outcomes, helping you understand the uncertainties and potential risks you may face. Involve relevant stakeholders in this process to gain multiple perspectives.
5. Assess risks and opportunities: Evaluate the implications of each scenario to assess the associated risks and opportunities. Identify the critical uncertainties and the likelihood and impact of each scenario. This will help you prioritize and focus your strategic planning efforts.
6. Develop strategies and actions: Based on the assessment, formulate strategies and actions to proactively address the identified risks and leverage the opportunities. These strategies should be flexible and adaptive, considering the different scenarios and potential future developments. Ensure alignment with your organization's objectives and engage key stakeholders in the decision-making process.
7. Monitor and update: Establish a system to continuously monitor the external environment, trends, and indicators that could signal potential changes. Regularly update your strategic foresight and warning framework to incorporate new data and insights. This will help you stay prepared and responsive to changes in the future.

Who needs strategic foresight and warning:

1. Organizations: Businesses, government agencies, and non-profit organizations can greatly benefit from strategic foresight and warning. It helps them anticipate potential risks, identify opportunities, and formulate effective strategies to navigate an uncertain future.
2. Decision-makers: Individuals responsible for making crucial decisions within an organization, such as executives, managers, and policy-makers, need strategic foresight and warning to inform their choices. It provides them with the necessary information and insights to make proactive and informed decisions.
3. Risk managers: Professionals involved in risk management, crisis management, and emergency planning can leverage strategic foresight and warning to identify and mitigate potential risks. It helps them anticipate and prepare for future challenges, ensuring the resilience and continuity of their organizations.
4. Researchers and analysts: Researchers and analysts in various fields, such as economics, geopolitics, technology, and social sciences, use strategic foresight and warning to study trends, understand underlying drivers, and develop informed predictions. It aids in generating valuable knowledge and insights for academic and policy-oriented research.

Overall, strategic foresight and warning are valuable tools for anyone who wants to be prepared and proactive in navigating an uncertain and rapidly changing world. It provides a structured approach to analyzing and understanding the future, helping organizations and individuals make better decisions and effectively manage risks.

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