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Can week-old pizza cause psychedelic hallucinations? Does coffee make you smarter? Or does it just make you do dumb stuff faster? Like a bunch of psychology itself, questions like this can seem pretty intuitive. I mean, people may not be the easiest organisms to understand, but you're a person, right? So you must be qualified to draw, like, some conclusions about other people and what makes them tick. But it's important to realize that your intuition isn't always right. In fact, sometimes it is exactly wrong, and we tend to grossly underestimate the dangers of false intuition. If you have an idea about a person and their behavior that turns out to be right, that reinforces your trust in your intuition. Like if one of my buddies, Bob, begins eating that deep-dish pizza that's been in the fridge for the past week, but he eats it anyway and soon starts to wig out, I'll say “Dude, I told you so”. But if I'm wrong, and he's totally fine, I probably won't even think about it ever again. This is known as 'Hindsight Bias” or the “I-Knew-It-All-Along” phenomenon. This doesn't mean the common sense is wrong, it just means that our intuitive sense more easily describes what just happened, than what will happen in the future. Another reason you can't blindly trust your intuition is your natural tendency toward overconfidence. Sometimes, you just really, really feel like you're right about people when actually you're really, really wrong. We've all been there. We also tend to perceive order in random events, which can lead to false assumptions. For example, if you flip a coin five times you have equal chances of getting all tails as you do getting alternating heads and tails. But we see the series of five tails as something unusual, as a streak, and thus giving that result some kind of meaning that it very definitely does not have. That is why we have the methods and safe-guards of psychological research and experimentation, and the glorious process of scientific inquiry. They help us to get around these problems and basically save the study of our minds from the stupidity of our minds. So I hope that it won't be a spoiler if I tell you now that pizza won't make you trip, and coffee doesn't make you smart. Sorry. [Intro] In most ways psychological research is no different from any other scientific discipline, like step one is always figuring out how to ask general questions about your subject and turn them into measurable, testable propositions. This is called operationalizing your questions. So you know how the scientific method works -- it starts with a question and a theory, and I don't mean theory in the sense of like, a hunch that say, a quad-shot of espresso makes you think better. Instead, in science a theory is what explains and organizes lots of different observations and predicts outcomes. And when you come up with a testable prediction, that's your hypothesis. Once your theory and hypothesis are in place, you need a clear and common language to...
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