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In 1964 Nikolai Kaddishes reasoned that the most fundamental way to classify how advanced a civilization was based on his energy consumption the more energy they consume which means control then the more sophisticated the civilization must be Keisha have even proposed a scale for quantifying how advanced civilizations are he could a civilization type one if it was able to harness all the energy striking its planet from the parent star which for the earth is about one point seven times ten to the seventeen watts such a civilization should have complete control of their planetary environment weather and resources as well as their local orbit going further a type two civilization would have a power consumption comparable to the output of a star which for the Sun is three point eight times 10 to the 26 watts such civilization would be using stars as engines effectively harnessing them using constructions such as Dyson spheres perhaps finally a type three civilization would have a power consumption comparable to a galaxy that's something like five times ten to the 36 watts such a civilization would be so advanced it's very difficult for us to make any kind of predictions about what they would be like and thus there's probably not too much point worrying about type four or five or six beyond that either he might wind up where does humanity fall on this scale well it was Carl Sagan who extended cutter chefs' idea to a continuous scale by noting that the energy levels are logarithmic Li uniformly distributed and this one can fit a straight line through the log of these three power levels, so I'm showing you the three energy levels here lets repeat Pagans calculation and fit the three power levels assuming a log linear law this gives us the following equation for our Kaddishes level K where P is the power used by our civilization in watts now last year in 2007 humanities average power consumption was 179 terawatts that would give us a Kaddishes score of point six zero yeah you might say that point six isn't too far off one point zero but remember this scale is logarithmic so in order to go from point six to one we have to increase our power consumption by a factor of 1 million now there are those out there who would say no problem humanities growth is itself exponential and this we should achieve type 1 status in a matter of centuries but if you get a calculator you can calculate when we will attain type 1 status the answer is in about a hundred years but does this check out okay so here's the average power consumption of humanity over time and at first glance you know such a claim seems reasonable it does look exponential if we take the logarithm of the power axis there than the growth certainly looks exponential even in log space up to the mid twentieth century and that's something we call hyper exponential growth but in more recent decades that hyper exponential growth behavior has shirted off and so clearly extrapolating this data into the far future...
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