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Assessing Theories, Bayes Style* Franz Huber, California Institute of Technology penultimate version: please cite the paper in SyntheseContents 1The Problem32Conflicting Concepts of Confirmation43Assessing
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Understand the prior probability, which is your belief about the likelihood of an event before any evidence is taken into account.
02
Consider the likelihood function, which is a measure of how likely you would observe the evidence given the different possible values of the parameter.
03
Apply Bayes' theorem to update your prior belief using the new evidence to calculate the posterior probability.
04
Repeat the process if new evidence becomes available, updating your belief with each new piece of information.

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Bayesian confirmation is a means of updating the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence or observations.
Anyone making decisions or inferences based on probabilities can use Bayesian confirmation.
Bayesian confirmation involves calculating the posterior probability of a hypothesis given prior probabilities and new evidence.
The purpose of Bayesian confirmation is to update beliefs or probabilities based on new information or data.
The information reported on Bayesian confirmation includes prior probabilities, new evidence, and the updated posterior probability.
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