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Using VS and Its Fire and Fuels Extension in the Context of Uncertain Climate Albert R. Stage Abstract While the prospect of a static climate is no longer tenable, the direction of change for particular

This paper examines the impact of varying levels of uncertainty of projected climate change on the VS and its Fire and Fuels Extension, along with the potential impact of these events on the potential of various plant species to grow, and the associated effects on local landscapes. While the prospects of a static climate remain tenable, the direction of change for particular localities is not yet clear. Simulations suggest that local climate changes may produce different vegetation types with different climatic characteristics with varying impacts on vegetation. Future simulations should therefore examine the effects of changes in projected climate variability on different localities. This should include examining future global climate variability. Keywords: SHM, Climate System Model, Fire and Fuels Extension, Uncertainty, Local Interventions, Climate Vulnerability Assessment Methodology, Potential Vulnerability 1. Introduction The potential for natural ecosystems to respond to climate change is clearly illustrated by the fact that forests are projected to be one of the most sensitive regions to climate change. Forested regions in the temperate region of Western Australia have the most favorable potential for increasing wood harvest potential, a positive feedback that can only be sustained if the forests are managed in accordance with current land planning and regulations (Baldwin and Cone 1999). However, the climate change implications of future forest management are still uncertain, and so research on current research has important implications when examining the future of future forests. One of the main drivers of climate change is global and regional radiative forcing, caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Smith et al. 2003). The greenhouse effect is generally a positive feedback which amplifies increases in radiative forcing, and consequently results in a warming of the Earth, with more energy trapped in the atmosphere in the form of radiation (Finish et al. 1999). While global land temperature is about 0.4 °C a decade (Foster et al. 2002), regional climate change is not limited to global mean temperature, there are significant regional effects due to local changes in Earth's orbit (Jain et al. 2002). This means that the climate of a given region acts as an instantaneous temperature response to a global change. Consequently, changes in global climate are projected to be felt in terms of changes in the surface temperature of the Earth (Stocks & Rainstorm 2000).

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