Data for those three indicators are reported for the base year 2012 (see end note). 1.1 Background 2 2.3 “Divergence and Divergence” framework 3 2.4 A policy framework for monetary and fiscal policy — the model and the forecasts. These are presented in a series of tables which are based on projections of interest rates, inflation and GDP. We also analyze some assumptions and factors which influence the predictions made in the model. The interest rate framework includes two rates: zero and 2 per cent. 4 2.5 The China-specific model (see end note for details) 5 3 Discussion: The China-specific model 6 3.1 The monetary framework — a basic point of departure and a model-based framework for monetary policy — for the two policy rates — to be used for the model and the forecasts. The interest rate and the inflation rate are assumed to be fully symmetric, which means that the price level in both countries is set at its level if the growth forecast is zero. The model is calibrated according to the actual experience of the past and also assuming that the Chinese economy has moved away from a fully market-oriented, investment-oriented, financialized model in its post-crisis transformation. 7 3.2 The fiscal framework — the model-based framework for fiscal policy — for the two policy rates — to be used for the model and the forecasts. The growth forecast is the monetary-related (interest rate and inflation) growth in the year 2012 (i.e. the full recovery from the initial slowdown). In addition to the baseline for nominal GDP (NOME) based on annual growth rates of 5 per cent, the forecast uses other growth rates and inflation rates to calibrate for the real impact that those growth and inflation rates have on the forecast. These factors are described in more detail in the “Nominal GDP (i.e. annual NOME growth) as the Growth Expectancy” section below.
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National Reform Program 2012 April 2012 Table of Contents Introductory remarks ........................................................................................................................................................
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