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Reversal of Fortune: Elizabeth Knee bone and Alan Be rube A New Look at Concentrated Poverty in the 2000s Trends suggest that the decline in concentrated poverty that occurred during the 1990s may

A striking and consistent geographical pattern emerged: regions of the country with high rates of ETC receipt show the largest increases in poverty from 1999 to 2005, while the remaining regions report a declining rate. This analysis suggests that the increase in poverty in the 2000s may have been largely caused by an influx of poor people and families from other states, rather than more families falling into poverty. The most pronounced changes in high-ETC-receiving regions and those with the lowest income showed a reduction in ETC income due to new entrants and other demographic shifts, including a smaller share of family income going to families in poverty. The authors propose that the shift in ETC income was largely a consequence of expanding the ETC workforce and an opening of new jobs for poor workers or families, which may have contributed to falling unemployment rates. The authors also note that while the ETC may temporarily reduce poverty, income disparities are likely to deepen over time. In their analysis, researchers at the Brookings Institution looked only at ETC income of individuals, not families, so the magnitude of the effect they found is unclear. Furthermore, the authors do not explain why they use only earnings as a measure for poverty, when an economic index that includes a family contribution might show a more meaningful change in the poverty rate. This is particularly problematic because in the 2000s, the Census Bureau expanded its income surveys to include the use of family income as part of poverty statistics and to provide a more comprehensive picture of poverty trends. The authors argue that the analysis's failure to properly identify poverty as a family matter is a clear demonstration that their focus on an individual measure misses the bigger picture of changing family conditions and poverty. The findings underscore the need for policymakers to take the current income distribution, not a specific tax credit or tax break, very seriously. The research also casts doubt on existing thinking that family composition could be driving increasing rates of poverty, suggesting instead that the economic changes that have weakened labor markets are partly responsible for the increase in poverty rates during the 2000s. However, the researchers highlight additional reasons for future concern. For instance, it is currently unclear whether the increasing concentration of poverty has more to do with changes in the composition of families, such as the increasing likelihood of single-mother households, or new job opportunities for both individuals and their families. The findings show that economic changes are pushing many single-parent households toward poverty, and are a key contributing factor in why poverty rates are so high among minority families.

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