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Developing an Industry Index Valuation for a Seasonal Parsimonious Market Orientation Model Reginald Gordon Sheppard University of New Brunswick An industry index provides a benchmark which companies

The index is intended to provide an indicator of the seasonal behavior of an industry in accordance with an industry's current growth and potential for growth (Sheppard, 2009, p. 449). A seasonally parsimonious market orientation (SUMO) is a model that attempts to understand the current economic conditions by evaluating the market performance of several competing industries. The index allows for the analysis of an industry's growth rate, and its potential growth by determining its competitive advantage. The index was developed for the retail food service industry using the SUMO assumption that there will be a limited amount of competition in some markets and that food service is the least competitive of the four major retail categories in Canada (Sheppard, 2009, p. 449). This index has been used in the production process of two studies (see Appendix D and C) which report on the impacts of a seasonally parsimonious market orientation on industry performance. The first use of a seasonally parsimonious market orientation model is in a study of the impact of the introduction of a new market on the growth and position of the industry. In this study, the model predicts the effect of a product introduction on a market by using a seasonally parsimonious approach. The product introduction is not implemented in the initial study; as in the SUMO analysis, the index predicts a limited supply of products that are attractive to consumers. The index model predicts a market response that is both competitively and temporally neutral, in that a product introduction had no effect on total market revenues, the price level, number of jobs, or the number of firms. The product launch creates a temporary surge in the business environment and creates positive spillover effects. However, as the initial market expands, the index model predicts a response that is competitively weak and temporally neutral in that the initial business environment decreases in size or position. In the second study, the index was used to predict company performance using the Retail Industry Performance Index. In this study, the index predicts the impact of the new market on the company's market opportunities. The index models the industry as having a long-term growth and value orientation. The initial distribution model shows that the initial product launch results in a temporary drop in the number of competitive market opportunities and, if the product is well marketable, the short-term market opportunities also decline.

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